SCAG Economists Hedging Their Bets…No Recession In SoCal Right Now; But…If We Do Get A Recession, It Will Be A Mild One

There is optimism in the boardroom at SCAG, the Southern California Association of Governments.

After a roundtable discussion in July, featuring the region’s top economic minds, SCAG has collectively decided that Southern California is likely to avoid a recession this quarter which started July 1st 2023.

They credit  strong labor markets, lower inflation, and increased federal investment in critical sectors such as green technology.

According to the latest quarterly update from the SCAG Economic Roundtable, earlier fears of recession have softened as general economic conditions have improved.

The Roundtable meets every quarter to look at economic factors in 6 SoCal counties, including Riverside.

Although a recession had been considered likely for the third quarter this year, the Roundtable is now generally optimistic that a recession will be averted or will be mild…if we do get a recession. 

SCAG says Southern California’s economic resiliency is driven by strong labor market,  however, the region is facing a number of labor disputes in regionally significant industries.  Commercial real estate is a weak spot in the region’s economy and housing continues to be soft, largely due to high interest rates and low supply.  

Federal spending through the Inflation Reduction Act is ramping up and presents significant opportunities and multiplier effects for the region, especially surrounding green technology.  Lithium mining is an emerging opportunity in Imperial County with commercial grade production possible by 2025.

Magnifying glass focused on the word ‘Jobs” in the classified ad section of a newspaper.

Photo from Alpha Media Portland OR